Lion At Russia’s Gate

  “I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.” – Alexander the Great

Vlad, I remind you, “a bomb is finished when it has exploded.” Energy Sector? You know what to do next. Finish it.

Lion stands guard at Russia’s Gate. Ukraine, who leads your army?

Guard these alLIES alliance is not but a “den of thieves” empowered to pawn you. Be reminded, France has never been able to live down U.S. coming to their defense. NATO, it will serve your nations well to cease from confusing Russia with the Soviet Union.

Ukrainians for decades have countered critics with “Ukraine not weak.” Yet, they sought military support from those who deny them NATO alliance.

It seems like only yesterday: “When you flirt with Russia, the Chinese grow jealous. When you smile at the Arabs, the Israelis frown.” Today, we see a frowning and jealous U.S.

Witnessing “superpower” economies crumbling the past three years, world leaders have finally caught a glimpse of the sheepherders and discovered their alliance with wolves.

Era of fallen warriors and rise of the machines is upon us. Sharpshooters on the ground and ‘Ace of Aces’ in the air rightfully earning the Blue Max are no more.  One by one they are taken down or are MIA.

In a “changing of the guard,” the new U.S. President failed to choose well who defends and leads his armies. Where in God’s name is General “Mad Dog” JAMES MATTIS?

By God Man, Shakespeare has spoken loud and clear, “Cry ‘Havoc!’ and let slip the dogs of war.”

Russia, I remind you of a time when leaders glorified their heroes – Men who commanded arms. Vassili Zaitsev, Russian sharpshooter, was known as “the hero of the propaganda campaign of a political officer.”

In less than a century, our heroes, warriors, and fighters were superseded with the “Rise of the Machines.”

Of Men and Machines

“We have grasped the mystery of the atom and rejected the Sermon on the Mount…. The world has achieved brilliance without wisdom, power without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.” – Omar Nelson Bradley, General of the Army

Yanks and Germans speak of sending the Kraines fighting machines: Bradley and Marder.

Wait, aren’t these Bradley’s the same ones called to be replaced since the 1980s with the Ground Combat Vehicle (GVC) but ultimately cancelled 10 years ago? Even so, it appears something’s better than nothing at all.

But Kraine, nothing is what you got from NATO, except support and good intentions. U.S., Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands… they can’t seem to make up their mind. It’s as if they’re playing a game, “You’re it. No, you’re it.” Olaf, you sure U.S. wants peace?

Still, your leader’s pleas go unheard. As you face yet another deadly winter, NATO feasts in Davos. Yes, it’s quite breathtaking this time of year. So as you’re freezing and hungry, they’re nice and comfy in their warm accommodations. “With friends like these, who needs enemies?”

Kraines, you’re clearly living on borrowed time: The “misfire” in Poland; the resignation of Ukrainian presidential adviser “suggesting a Russian missile that killed at least 44 people in the city of Dnipro had been shot down by Ukraine,’ and the recent “WarHelicopter Crash in Ukraine.”

Perhaps, such incidents are what the President of the European Commission had in mind when questioned by Christiane Amanpour about sending Ukraine weapons. Ursula von der Leyen’s response was very telling as she noted what Ukraine “needs and can handle.” But to be fair, the chopper in the recent incident is said to be a “French-manufactured Super Puma” helicopter.

In a different place and another time, let us look at what may have been if NATO thought you could “handle” their weapons.

Ukraine – Russia. Which is David and which is Goliath? One could play defense and strike down Goliath’s launches. Think Iron Dome. Or, one could counter with a defense and point-offensive.  Or a David 3.0. Think U.S. Patriot System or Surface to Air Missile (SAM). SAM comes in a PAC-2 or PAC-3 model. I call them Sam2 or 3.

Both Sams got Mach speed but what’s your aim?  Distance or power? Interception or Destruction? Sam2 launch range is 160km. Sam3 range is in 30s or 60s. Its defense is robust and “PACS” a punch but its interception is soft.

Still, these are the reported specifications. Pentagon actual numbers are likely “classified.” So they may be a lot higher or significantly lower. Of course, taking possession does away with any uncertainty. But beware the power of perception and not be fooled by a faux image.

Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper had noted “Army needs to transition from the Reagan Era of Big Five.” Right Mark, but no matter the Big Budget given to the DOD, it continues to be two steps behind with legacy defense equipment, or what Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall refers to “older aircraft that are increasingly not operationally effective and more expensive to maintain.”

Yet, Kendall says the “Soviet Union had good scientists and engineers but terrible at manufacturing.” Tell us, what say Lockheed Martin’s about the reported vulnerability of the F-35 or “flying supercomputer?” Sure, they’ve manufactured and sold a shit load. But do buyers question about them being shut down?

So Kendall, if as you say the “Average age of our aircraft in the Air Force right now is 30 years,” and you don’t plan to hang onto them, who ya going to sell it to or dump it with? How about Ukraine? Sure is a good way to score some points with the Kraines at no big expense to the US. But Kraine, will it be at your expense?

Don’t forget what happened in Iraq. Reportedly the Bradley had a few weak spots which led to the damage and/or destruction of hundreds. Kraine, if and when you get them, you may want to check if you also got their upgrade, Bradley Urban Survival Kit (BUSK). According to www.armyrecognition.com, “These upgrades greatly improve the survivability of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.”

Germans too appear to be looking to replace their old shit. But instead of a Marder 2 they’ve given its replacement the name, ‘The Puma.’ “The Puma is designed to replace an ageing German Marder 1 IFV, which has been in service for more than 30 years but is still in demand by other poorer NATO countries.”

Only this cat ain’t looking so cool. Not only did practice not make perfect but it was “Peinlich für Deutschland” [Embarrassing for Germany]. According to Major General Ruprecht von Butler, “the operational readiness of 18 Puma infantry fighting vehicles deteriorated to the point where they were completely unusable, which Major von Butler described as a “total failure.”

Still, there’s been talk of “Leopard-2 tanks.” But it appears the Germans are in a pickle. Do they send their Pumas or the much talked about Leopards? Concern may be that the world will witness either another flop or a “killing machine.” Or is it that like story of “The Good German,” Germany cannot forget the destruction WWII brought to their land. More importantly, mass human destruction.

My fellow Germans, it appears your “hunter-killer” days were over with the Third Reich. “Not open for public debate” says Olaf Scholz. The hell it isn’t Herr Chancellor!

Ukrainians, as they say in the West, ‘you get what you pay for.’ Oh, that’s right, you didn’t pay a cent. So don’t frown, ‘beggars can’t be choosers.’ Still the negative reports may give credence to the question posed by Joseph P Chacko three months into the Ukraine-Russia conflict. “Why are U.S. weapons failing in Ukraine?”

Chacko points to the Javelins and Stingers, among others.

“The problem with Javelins is both tactical and doctrinal. The Ukrainian Prisoners of War state that the U.S. help was overhyped. The Javelins were either outdated or unkempt and often misfired. The instructors ignored the misfires and gave them basic information on how to fire the missiles.”  Report of accidental firing onto Ukraine’s neighbor Poland is not surprising.

Yep, it looks like the U.S. reminiscing in its past with Iraq and Afghanistan was hoping for lightening to strike twice. Instead they and the Kraines found “Stinger Missiles that didn’t sting.” Why? Says Chacko, “Just like the T-72’s on the ground, the Russian helicopters rule the air in Ukraine.”

So WTF happened? Two-fold: 1. The old shit just ain’t cutting it. 2. Adversary appears to be taking advantage of US old defense systems laid out on Kraine’s battleground for all to see.

Recall Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s words, “We have a capable adversary who is studying us every day. Right now they’re studying what is happening in the Ukraine…They’ve shown their ability to be strategic in their investments.They’ve shown their ability to be creative in the types of forces they create which in many cases is non-traditional…”

And why would US not supply fully-equipped defense systems? “The Americans removed the FCS from the howitzers, knowing that some of the guns would fall into the hands of the Russian army.”

Perhaps the Americans have caught a glimpse of what I see as Russian Intervention: Impetus Behind Enemy Targets?

In addition, “The Javelins, which ended up as trophies with the Russians and Donetsk Militia, were termed ‘junk’. In fact, in the initial days of the war, the Russians spoke about the U.S. establishing an office in Lviv to prevent Ukrainians from speaking out on Javelins’ issues.”

Of course, media continues to wag the ‘bad Ruski’ propaganda tale. Speaking of hype, Chacko concludes, “It remains to be seen if the M777s will make a difference in the war or will be a myth buried in the Ukrainian propaganda books.”

Andrew Wilson, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations explains “Russian political technologists are quite good at what they do. They are much cleverer than Soviet propagandists, in part because they do not want to change the West or proselytise it, but work with the grain of its faults and foibles.” U.S. has left itself wide open.

Lastly, will the claim of Ukraine victory win them membership to the Western “country club”?

Sure, NATO may come to your aid sooner or later, but the damage is done. They’ve pushed you to your limits.

Russia-Ukraine, Order or Fantasy?

On his The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America, Timothy Snyder notes three central subjects pointing to Russia: Vladimir Putin, Kremlin, and ‘implausible deniability.’

Indeed, they are laid out quite nicely, Tim. Let me turn West and attempt a complement of sorts: US Presidents, NSA, and CIA.

Speaking of men in the shadows “CIA Director Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.”

Hmm, a week BEFORE the recent reported chopper crashed?

Engaging in bilateral negotiations as you did with the Iranians a decade ago? Burns, I hear you were “in the driver’s seat.” Zelenskiy, given a choice at the table, “stability over chaos, order over freedom,” which do you choose?

According to Hedrick Smith in “The New Russians,” Russians would choose stability over chaos, order over freedom.” Russia, where do you derive your power? Wilson points to “…grubaya syla or ‘coarse power.’

Vladimir Putin, do you agree? Says Vlad, “I know what my interests in my country are.”

Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated in a HARDtalk interview, “The war between Ukraine and Russia was a fantasy.” Still think it’s fantasy?

I think it’s what has always been, Grubaya Syla and Drool. No one understood this better than a Russian, Ivan Pavlov. Data and Drool. Yes, I see the connection! 🙂

“But, Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,

In proving foresight may be vain;

The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men…” – Robert Burns