Israel at the Realm of Political Decisiveness: Counter Attack – Negotiations
US, Iran and Saudi Arabia ⃝ Pendulum has swung full circle.
Israel at the realm commandeering Political Decisiveness in Counter Attack – Negotiations.
‘War against an idea’ says Ami Ayalon, Former Director, Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet). Yes Ami, but this ‘idea’ like an insidious circle knows no boundaries.
Where you see “Two types of wars in two dimensions,” I see three dimensions running parallel as Plato’s ‘The Tripartite Soul’: Political Decisiveness (Charioteer), Counter Attack (gain) and Negotiations (victory).
Iran, come full circle? Except war was not an option for the Americans, not until September 11th airstrike. Saudis, grasp tightly ‘the rope of lies’ for as not to slip through ‘sands of time.’
Counter Attack
Brutal attack is at the forefront and informs one’s decision to respond.
Israel’s October 7th runs parallel to U.S. September 11th AND Americans taken Hostage on November 4, 1979. Striking difference, captivity of hostages and attack were two decades apart with two different aggressors – Iranians and Saudi Arabians.
I am reminded of 1973. Oriana Fallaci, Italian journalist conducted several notable interviews with world leaders. With Yasir Arafat:
Fallaci: “Are you capable of respecting your enemies?”
Arafat: “As fighters, and even as strategists…sometimes, yes.”
Fallaci: “Part of the game of war. They’ve also won because they’re brave soldiers.”
Arafat: “No! No! No! No they’re not! In hand-to-hand combat, face to face, they’re not even soldiers.”
“It’s always the same story with the Israelis. They’re good at attacking with planes because they know we have no planes, with tanks because they know we have no tanks…”
Interception or Deception? Super Computer nor F-35s were able to combat boots on the ground or sky.
Lockheed, supplier of weapons, aircraft, and rockets, a surprise or planned attack? Says their CEO, “Planned US defense spending will provide “strong underpinning for future growth over the next several years for our company.”
Tim, remember the “original “October surprise”: the charge that Ronald Reagan, Carter’s Republican opponent in the 1980 presidential election, made a secret deal with the new, fundamentalist Iranian government to delay releasing the American hostages.”? Something to do with covert U.S.-Iran arms deals.
Lock, be reminded not all ‘bundling of services’ are ideal. G-7, best you oversee the funding of Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Find you will, ‘hidden fees.’
I question this “Brave New World’- Strike, Ready or Not!” mentality of purveyors of wars. Lockheed, is it right, F-35 program selling for over $2 Trillion? Business of War looks good!
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Negotiations: Hostages AND Israel-US-Saudi Defense Deals
Negotiators, important to read before proceeding to Cairo on Saturday, May 4, 2024.
Captivity of hostages is liken to that of worker ants in underground tunnels securing assets. A decentralized network with a “Queen” in command is naturally by design.
October 7th clearly not orchestrated entirely by Hamas. First, after examining footage you find willing public participants engaged in hostile and criminal acts recklessly or carelessly without facial coverage, unlike Hamas and other Operatives. Second, listening to testimony of released captives, one can deduce their captors and captivity locations were fluid – Hostages were moved and not consistently monitored by the same individuals who initially captured them.
Saturday, May 4th we are expecting all interested parties back on the negotiating tables. Recall back in February, “Mossad chief leaves Cairo after talks with US, Egypt, Qatar on new Israel-Hamas deal.” Afterwards, reportedly “Shin Bet, the Israel Defense Forces and the Mossad pushed for Israel to present a counterproposal in Cairo.”
Time to counter. The Times of Israel reports on May 3, 2024 “Hamas official says terror group will send delegation to Cairo Saturday.” Hamas, good timing! Distraction of students and OPERATIVES protesting is pretty much over. Appears reverse logic is being played. In America, hostage negotiators ‘stall for time’ and in Basketball, a ‘time-out’ is called to advance. Looks like you learned both well.
Yet, before Hamas could get the words out of their mouth, CIA Bill Burns flew to Cairo, apparently tasked at both hostage and arms negotiations. Not surprisingly, it was reported, “Israeli official who expresses frustration with Burns’ decision to arrive before Hamas has even responded to the deal, again raising expectations that a deal is close when one might not be.” Why the hard push Bill?
US needs to go back to two negotiating tables! One, with Hamas, and the other with Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel. For Saudis, what appears to be on the line is a Defense deal with the Americans. The Times of Israel refers to Saudi Plan ‘B’ as “building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.”
US appears to want to ‘kill three birds with one stone” OIL!-Presidential Election-Hostages.
CIA and MI6, Bill Burns spoke of you both exposing ‘false narratives.’ I think he meant promoting. US and UK, recall Arafat’s words, “If you’re so anxious to give a homeland to the Jews, give them yours – You have a lot of land in Europe, in America…we won’t give it up to pay your debts.”
After 200 days, the two most powerful nations and others still ‘call on Hamas for immediate release of hostages.’ Boys, you left out ‘pretty please.’
Bill, as to ‘0 risk,’ is this what you mean by ‘managing it’ because you sure as hell couldn’t mitigate or anticipate it. What you call a ‘Conflict in the Middle East’ and ‘War in Ukraine’ has nothing to do with Democracy or Leadership.
It’s what Reagan may have reiterated to Carter, “Those who say that we are in a time when there are no heroes, they just don’t know where to look.” Of course, what Ronnie called ‘heroes’ others called hostages.
But today what some call hostages, others see as Jewish occupiers. A call for cease fire arose principally at US universities, facilitated by stakeholders in upcoming election, pressuring Joe, who called on Intel agencies and in turn pressuring Israel.
Burns, appears your boss badly needs these deals to go through. Of course, Hamas could continue to ‘stall for time’ asking ‘How bad you want it?”
Goddam, were talking about a decisive political election here! Bill, sound familiar?
Political Decisiveness
Israel, we’ve been here before. Americans 53 hostages held by Iran for 444 days were reportedly released in the hours leading to President Ronald Reagan’s inaugural address. Jimmy seemingly and smilingly had no idea.
For Israel, a bit more complicated. Proximity to the adversary intensifies and complicates situation because multiple decisions need to be assessed.
Operationalizing one conflicts with the others in the midst of this Regional Conflict. And as Ayalon notes, it is between ‘Sunni and Shia’ not between Israel and Palestine.
Israel, you became an easy mark, a means to an end. Ayalon may agree. His view, “End became the means. Battlefield as the means to dismantle Hamas is an achievable military goal but not political goal.”
Question is, will Israel commit to either a Palestinian state or a two-state solution? If so, ‘Riyadh would then normalise relations and help fund Gaza’s reconstruction.” Ultimate plan, Holy Land and Kingdom, ‘the enemy of my enemy…’? Iran, how fast can you mobilize your people?
All appears to rest with Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu, see ‘a bird in the hand’ or willing to wager what’s behind the bush? A Biden election or Trump?
Carter was up for re-election when Embassy staff in Iran were taken hostage. Forty-four years later, appears the ‘1980 October Surprise theory’ was put into practice in Israel. Question is, will a new US President strike a deal with Iran? In exchange, what country will supply them weapons, US or Saudis?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, I put forth four years ago the following:
Will your “Circle of Peace” be decentralized? Or, will it simply be squared pacts run by one or a few? As long as politicians play with peoples’ land partitioning it and manipulating its resources as a function for powerful interests, the people cannot live in peace, no matter the number of “peace deals.”
Prime Minister, it seems rather precarious to “fluff one’s feathers.” You may feel secure but not all Israelis feel secure nor a majority of American Jews. Why?
In part, for some of the reasons you applauded the President Trump. To summarize your list: Jerusalem Embassy, Golan Heights, Iran Deal, Eliminating Soleimani, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza demilitarization. But be reminded that nothing last forever. “The rope of lies is short.”
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine’s leader was not present at your event. So I’ll interject what he once reportedly stated, “We need international support so that our people live a life of normality, of dignity, of liberty and freedom. I hope that our cry for freedom may be heard.”
Cries grew on ‘deaf years’ until October 7th Ironically, new cries were heard. Speaking of ‘swallowing another pill of irony,’ seems ludicrous of Bibi calling on Elon to address antisemitism on Twitter/X.
All the while, YouTube, owned by one of the two biggest social media giants, Google and Facebook, had for almost two decades been successfully operationalized by their golden girl, Sheryl.
Israel, three questions: 1.Did the Americans’ threat assessment fail? 2. Did they neglect to take preemptive action in alerting you? 3. Or, did your leader find it in his interest to ignore alert?
Lebanon’s Minister of Economy and Trade raised a compelling point: Interested players stand to gain.
In today’s conflicts, who stands to gain tomorrow?
President Ronald Reagan’s inaugural speech to the public “We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow’ published by the New York Times appears to have already been put into action.
As Branko Marcetic writes “It’s not a conspiracy theory: Ronald Reagan secretly negotiated to keep the Iran hostages captive for an extended period to try to keep President Jimmy Carter from winning reelection.”
So, who will play Carter’s role today and with a smile, Biden or Bibi?
I remind you, Victory is not about manpower or firepower, but of Leadership. It is as Helmuth von Moltke pointed out “Superior at the Decisive Point.’
“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces. Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end.
Israel, as Napoleon, relied for far too long on the belief that “Having an army does not make you a Goliath, it only keeps you safe.”
Future? Fail not again to heed words I made clear in August:
→”Israel’s future to ‘weep for generations’ will likely be on account of ill-advised commands, steering it to face reprisal at the hand of Palestinians and their Alliances, not AI.”